The Battle for the Gavel, Intermission
Kevin McCarthy (KM) is now, by the slimmest of margins, Speaker of the House … which returns Monday to consider The Rules, to rearrange deck Chairs on committees, “and for other purposes” — which may include finding out what agreements were struck, and whether all sides agree what those agreements meant.
A few notes on the state of play:
The House Republican Conference (HRC) remains a nominal majority, not a functional majority. It can’t routinely deliver 218, even by tailoring floor measures to that narrow groove.
Reportedly, KM’s 14th-hour dealmaking included a bury-the-hatchet provision. No reprisals … but implements will be sharpened for another time.
Others will awake to discover that they’ve lost a vital organ in the scrum … and may quietly choose to spend more time with their families.
Aside from the fact that KM can’t count, some of his chips don’t stack neatly. Embarrassing showdowns and last-moment procedural pulls lie ahead. So does a patience-testing train of long nights, long weeks, exhausted weekends.
Committee ratios are paper-thin, and sub/committees have been led to expect more independence from leadership. Even without the influence of eccentrics and squeaky wheels, this will open more opportunities to deliver text that misses an achievable 218 “sweet spot” if there ever was one.
200+ D’s will prevail on key votes — joined by a minimal complement of R stragglers. Stranded between a D Senate, a D POTUS, and their own marginal performers, HRC is more an opposition bloc than a working majority.
Willing brokers include R’s currently out of office (or at least out of the House), concerned campaign op’s and allied groups, pundits and lobbyists. Cue up Technicolor Refreshment Trailer No. 1!1
HRC defectors will vary from issue to issue. “Do-something” R’s will warm up to the idea that the real work gets done across the aisle — even thru fundraising resistance, primary challenges, and death threats. This won’t convert R’s to D’s, but it will lead them to think a bit differently, and recurring partnerships may evolve.
With many Members, KM starts his term on thin ice. While the breaking point could come at any time, but the ice will be extremely thin by summer — when the debt limit must be raised, and spending measures should demonstrate visible progress.
Forget all the commotion about motions to vacate. KM will leave the Chair (and his seat) before it comes to that.
So for now, Friday’s C_SPAN extravaganza makes KM the Head Endive In Charge. If the GOP could put a better-suited cabbage in the Chair, they surely would have rolled one out after a dozen Speaker votes.
For background (and possible future reference) see my November Cheney Gambit, as well as last week’s Battle for the Gavel, Round One.
“Let's all go to the lobby
Let's all go to the lobby
Let's all go to the lobby
And get ourselves a treat!“