Beginning with Gov. DeWine’s 5/12/2021 announcement of Ohio’s Vax-a-Million program1, the vaccination incentive lottery concept has gone viral.
Ten states2 have their own versions, with jackpots ranging from $302K to $5M. Plans are pending in other states ... all before any clear evidence the programs work.3
Extraordinary random rewards are a neglected tool of influence in public policy and philanthropic applications.4 The current burst of experimentation creates valuable learning opportunities, but careless construction could leave us with the wrong lessons — or no lessons at all.
What can go wrong? Here are ten areas of questionable execution in programs to date.
Demographic skew. As currently constructed, all such programs favor the educated, affluent and digitally adept over our disadvantaged, digitally challenged, less-documented, more-skeptical poor and minority neighbors — the least-vaccinated members of out communities.
Inclusion gaps. Opt-in states and database states, by accident and by design, leave out many vaccinated community members. Two million eligibles have not enrolled in Ohio’s program. Many Coloradans have been unable to confirm their records in the state database. And for many in either system, imperfect contact information will silently cancel their winning chances. It may be politically necessary to leave out felons, non-citizens, undocumented citizens, relocated households, snowbirds and out-of-state students, but epidemiologically we’re all in the same plague-ridden boat.
Data-blindness. No state has invested in surveys to diagnose problems (1) and (2), to gauge attitudes, or test program effectiveness (and defectiveness). We have the makings of a valuable experiment — a contrast of high- and low-dollar rewards, cash and in-kind premiums, pure jackpots and tiered prize pyramids. We could learn so much for a tiny fraction of the overall program cost, but we won’t UNLESS we interrogate the herd while it’s on the move.
Desperation schedules. California’s massive jackpots will all be distributed by June 15 — too fast for clinics to clean up their backlogs of state database input, for promo to reach the masses, for newly-motivated prospects to get their shots and let their records reach the database.
Winner-only drawings. Drawing at random from a pool of known vaccinated subjects, a HUGE motivational opportunity is missed —the suspenseful hook and dramatic deflation of a random Joe who could have been a millionaire if he’d only stepped up and got his shot. See U. Penn CHIBE’s Kevin Volpp on the power of “anticipated regret”.
New jabs, but not old jabs. Yes, we are focused on the unvaccinated millions. But programs that reward new shots — while excluding those who took action before the reward game started — send wrong messages and set bad precedents. The last thing we want is to teach our wait-and-see factions to hold out for better offers.
Standards of proof. Reliance on vaccination cards tilts the table against less literate, less organized, struggling, juggling large families in small living spaces. We might also be feeding a cottage industry in fake credentials. There are better ways, and we can afford them.
Sleights of hand. Lottery ticket “giveaways” add no money to the prize pool and have negligible effect on the odds that a game’s grand prize will go to anyone who has been vaccinated. For that matter, a “million dollar” prize is somewhat illusory when 40% or so evaporates in state and federal taxes.
Failures of vigilance. Any public proclamation of big money distribution will bring scam artists out of the woodwork. Basic countermeasures — like locking up lookalike domain names — have been taken too late or too lightly. If any unwary hopeful gets burned, we all get burned.
Limited locations. Some programs enrol prospects at specified locations only, and some such locations suggest commercial or lottery-game tie-in’s. Even where the rules insist “no purchase necessary”, contestants vaguely suspect (as in “Publishers Clearinghouse”) that their odds improve when they buy something, and thus vaguely suspect they’re being used to someone else’s benefit.
There’s more to consider.
In an age of billion-dollar games, is $1M insignificant? Do grand prizes and door prizes complement, or distract? Does the glaring vibe5 of state lottery collateral fit the reassurance needed by vaccine skeptics? Can informative and inspirational messaging get more effective presence in lottery promo?
There’s a long road ahead. If we’re going to use this vehicle, shouldn’t we learn to get the best mileage out of it?
Or arguably with KY Gov. Beshear’s 5/10 “Cash Ball” ticket giveaway.
OH, MD, CO, OR, DE, CA, WV, NM, WA, KY as of 6/4/2021. Ticket giveaways for existing lottery games (NY, AR) and massive small-prize offers (MN) don’t count.
Ohio dutifully hypes its best numbers, but over one-third of eligible (vaccinated) Ohioans haven’t even signed up, and new vaccinations took an apparent nose-dive in Week Two.
The author has been an enthusiatic proponent of various “Golden Ticket” applications since before the World Wide Web and the rise of Behavioral Economics.
(Does blazing orange make you more or less eager to get poked in the arm?)